this is a great read by Christian Catalini. i have been enjoying recent discussions on where we see the economy/policy move for closed vs open weight models.
By now, it is hopefully clear that it is not the level of investment in AI that is challenged by open-weights, only its direction.
A world where open weights dominate sustains progress in every domain where there is at least one company with a complementary business model or assets to guarantee appropriability. Some companies, like NVIDIA, naturally care about any domain that leads to more demand for intelligence. Others care because of how AI lowers costs, improves quality, increases engagement and retention, and so on. An open-model-centric outcome is one where machine intelligence is still very capable, but specialized.
Source: Some Simple Economics of Open versus Closed AI
without a doubt open weight models will play a significant role in intelligence. i think we may see licensing or regulatory levels applied (similar to drugs). or maybe it will be something similar to the EPA stepping in the 70s when companies were dumping waste as it was cheaper than removing it; for example, a cheaper open weight intelligence with negative externality not be allowed in regulated industries. open weight is not free, there are still hardware costs.
Related: nvidia’s $6B poolside deal to push open-weight models